MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2708e7c4dab7e07e54fbf66233e2b2092dfce5658dd316dba30a5514cd8110f3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $179,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $178,954
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $179,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4d3a…6f3dbacked Under | 3c | 90,000$2,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 47c | 40,000$18,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,799.99 | 550 | 53.6%295 W · 255 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5e…83f8backed Over | 53c | 28,466$15,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,463.71 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Over | 52c | 17,608$9,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,454.91 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 5,488$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.73 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 5,269$2,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,406.41 | 631 | 52.6%332 W · 299 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 47c | 4,839$2,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,274.88 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…8fe8backed Over | 57c | 4,354$2,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,857.34 | 335 | 54%181 W · 154 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Under | 47c | 4,300$2,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,021 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 53c | 2,832$1,501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,331 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 53c | 2,500$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Under | 48c | 2,400$1,152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,152 | 208 | 50%104 W · 104 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 42c | 2,338$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.04 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Under | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.99 | 301 | 51.5%155 W · 146 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Under | 47c | 1,117$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.99 | 733 | 52.4%384 W · 349 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Under | 47c | 1,068$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.12 | 240 | 40.8%98 W · 142 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Under | 51c | 980.39$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 926.08$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.26 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Over | 54c | 600$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276 | 269 | 49.4%133 W · 136 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 44c | 595$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.8 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3a…1440backed Under | 50c | 575$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 47c | 500$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 47c | 469.61$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.72 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0d…8d9dbacked Over | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +48.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3853…a3d3backed Under | 51c | 400$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203 | 98 | 63.3%62 W · 36 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Under | 47c | 350$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.9 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -9.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Over | 53c | 342.55$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 129 | 44.2%57 W · 72 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0727…ec27backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…04f5backed Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38dd…c20abacked Under | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 249 | 51.8%129 W · 120 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 54c | 185$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Under | 76c | 177.79$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.12 | 122 | 65.6%80 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 24c | 176.79$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.36 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 51c | 132.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.97 | 115 | 44.3%51 W · 64 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 54c | 129.63$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.63 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Under | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 478 | 50.4%241 W · 237 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 494 | 50%247 W · 247 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84dc…9c02backed Over | 53c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 179 | 54.7%98 W · 81 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 46c | 44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1,137 | 46.3%526 W · 611 L | +36.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5def…fd63backed Under | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3129…22edbacked Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 127 | 46.5%59 W · 68 L | -7.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 258 | 54.3%140 W · 118 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Tigers vs. GuardiansGuardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.