Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8378d3d379c8579703d7ba5aaf682c205f327144d9638872034a1012de0fbd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 285.42$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 79c | 281.7$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 57c | 179.41$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.92 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 41c | 106.53$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 96.35$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 43c | 95.74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.57 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 38c | 87.94$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 63c | 84.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.54 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 55c | 82.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 81$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 62$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 60.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 35c | 60.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 35c | 56.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 49.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 42c | 45.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 55c | 45.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 42c | 44.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 40.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 40.03$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 45c | 38.44$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.3 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 34.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 53c | 30.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d2e…f022backed Yes | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 180 | 33.9%61 W · 119 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed Yes | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.21 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b95…898abacked No | 66c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 301 | 68.8%207 W · 94 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 62c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 58c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 77c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.68 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 66-67°F on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.