Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f90cf5655cccab18c2563ae3f2825afb5d0672f6ffe0179d9588f31bc125da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spirit Academyof Spirit Academy, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,287
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed summer bear | 31c | 423.75$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.48 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Spirit Academy | 68c | 416.47$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.45 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed summer bear | 65c | 411.28$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.28 | 935 | 46.4%434 W · 501 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked summer bear | 18c | 397.03$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.75 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 318.37$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…e97cbacked summer bear | 42c | 306.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.87 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed summer bear | 18c | 304.67$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.91 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed summer bear | 35c | 300$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5540…fbf4backed Spirit Academy | 68c | 294.97$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Spirit Academy | 75c | 276.53$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.03 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1982…bc7bbacked Spirit Academy | 74c | 273.7$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.94 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd385…34fbbacked summer bear | 56c | 246.82$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.22 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Spirit Academy | 41c | 236$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.8 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Spirit Academy | 53c | 202.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.96 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed summer bear | 9c | 166.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed summer bear | 58c | 153.95$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Spirit Academy | 44c | 151$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.56 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Spirit Academy | 59c | 135.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked summer bear | 49c | 123.37$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked summer bear | 29c | 117.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.96 | 124 | 32.3%40 W · 84 L | -10.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked summer bear | 32c | 113.88$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.36 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Spirit Academy | 80c | 65.55$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Spirit Academy | 54c | 63.67$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 60.81$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf21…667bbacked summer bear | 58c | 56.58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8c…9433backed summer bear | 74c | 56.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed summer bear | 38c | 56.46$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d3…271dbacked Spirit Academy | 60c | 52.62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.05 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked summer bear | 44c | 51.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked summer bear | 57c | 49.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fa…f1e0backed summer bear | 33c | 48.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 813 | 45.1%367 W · 446 L | -26.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1f…a7d2backed Spirit Academy | 42c | 47.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 33cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed summer bear | 63c | 45.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.66 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked summer bear | 35c | 41.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 328 | 6.4%21 W · 307 L | -102.4wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 18-0.29 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…8202backed Spirit Academy | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked summer bear | 32c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180a…bd66backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Spirit Academy | 43c | 34.55$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Spirit Academy | 54c | 31.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1d…cc28backed Spirit Academy | 67c | 28.51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…203abacked Spirit Academy | 43c | 27.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Spirit Academy | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +11.8wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 174 | 43.1%75 W · 99 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac1a…8689backed Spirit Academy | 61c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x113f…ae4dbacked Spirit Academy | 58c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Spirit Academy | 65c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Spirit Academy | 65c | 23.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Spirit Academy | 64c | 23.18$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed Spirit Academy | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4126…e68bbacked Spirit Academy | 77c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs summer bear - Game 1 WinnerSpirit Academy won
- Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs summer bear - Game 2 WinnerSpirit Academy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.