Music · resolved market
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 500k and 550k?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fa5ea1ca8b475deb7120b65d1a1ba82198c9d514522e551d93af7972452e5c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,432$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.02 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6b…b1dbbacked Yes | 9c | 1,655$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.76 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b9…de6dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,258$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 693.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb933…fb0abacked Yes | 2c | 651$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 557.47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 9c | 514.95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.98 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3db7…1456backed Yes | 13c | 500$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7c…8356backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f2e…caf6backed Yes | 8c | 291.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…3694backed Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 105 | 17.1%18 W · 87 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 500k and 550k?this page
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be 600k or more?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 300k and 350k?Yes won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 350k and 400k?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 400k and 450k?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 450k and 500kNo won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be between 550k and 600k?No won
- Will The Life of a Showgirl’s second-week album sales be under 300k?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.