Tennis · resolved market
Valencia: Sebastian Baez vs Roberto Carballes Baena
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0faf4078c7093f43e4e77d8c51172104773ddf63655a4ec9e8985db69e861828
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sebastian Baezof Sebastian Baez, Roberto Carballes Baena
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,379
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 15c | 6,558$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.73 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x710c…78eabacked Sebastian Baez | 78c | 3,604$2,799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.7 | 1,040 | 58.2%605 W · 435 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…5051backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 12c | 2,025$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243 | 973 | 7.9%77 W · 896 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 18c | 1,638$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.34 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62ae…c975backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 28c | 1,607$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 215 | 37.2%80 W · 135 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 12c | 1,448$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.15 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa6…83f9backed Sebastian Baez | 66c | 1,000$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 454 | 45.4%206 W · 248 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95c5…d5d3backed Sebastian Baez | 68c | 980.44$663 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.39 | 601 | 58.6%352 W · 249 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 11c | 979.46$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f67…a1d7backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6f…a65fbacked Sebastian Baez | 75c | 939.07$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.07 | 64 | 57.8%37 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 13c | 913.47$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.61 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 10c | 876.27$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 18c | 727.04$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.57 | 2,523 | 39.6%1,000 W · 1,523 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcf…ef2fbacked Sebastian Baez | 70c | 581.55$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.86 | 97 | 55.7%54 W · 43 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 14c | 477.69$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.53 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 6c | 443.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.55 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 15c | 442.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Sebastian Baez | 66c | 386.61$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.45 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a3…3850backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 10c | 227.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 856 | 24.4%209 W · 647 L | -9.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf753…bcfebacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 14c | 226.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 537 | 36.9%198 W · 339 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 15c | 202$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 547 | 46.8%256 W · 291 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 12c | 199.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,028 | 43.3%445 W · 583 L | -24.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x697e…9904backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 13c | 197.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Sebastian Baez | 72c | 185.13$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 2,229 | 45%1,002 W · 1,227 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Sebastian Baez | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Sebastian Baez | 76c | 142.65$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1,421 | 55%782 W · 639 L | +23.3wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…01fcbacked Sebastian Baez | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 131 | 58%76 W · 55 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71ca…762bbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 12c | 122.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 43c | 103.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.71 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +13.3wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,076 | 55.5%597 W · 479 L | +8.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa664…f849backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 27c | 99.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 856 | 34.2%293 W · 563 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 11c | 92.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,354 | 43.9%595 W · 759 L | -62.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7813…eeccbacked Roberto Carballes Baena | 29c | 86.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7e…70ecbacked Sebastian Baez | 71c | 71.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 1,001 | 45.4%454 W · 547 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d6…01ccbacked Sebastian Baez | 73c | 54.88$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1,077 | 62.8%676 W · 401 L | -27.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Sebastian Baez | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb171…7d2bbacked Sebastian Baez | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 326 | 49.1%160 W · 166 L | -18.4wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Sebastian Baez | 72c | 37.18$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 2,561 | 63%1,613 W · 948 L | -10.2wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31dd…7159backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 903 | 40.2%363 W · 540 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8711…d2d0backed Roberto Carballes Baena | 35c | 34.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 433 | 58.4%253 W · 180 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d19…bf25backed Sebastian Baez | 74c | 33.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 647 | 55%356 W · 291 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Sebastian Baez | 70c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc15c…a6b0backed Sebastian Baez | 71c | 20.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 287 | 58.5%168 W · 119 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89b9…118ebacked Sebastian Baez | 67c | 19.52$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 749 | 55.1%413 W · 336 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdff6…0918backed Sebastian Baez | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 498 | 57%284 W · 214 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dee…5d00backed Sebastian Baez | 69c | 15.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 161 | 54.7%88 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.