Tennis · resolved market
ITF Aschaffenburg: Tena Lukas vs Julia Avdeeva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fbd1ac5caed5fcb4f45db82741d93bb876f067baf718352a7a6541eac16d156
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Julia Avdeevaof Tena Lukas, Julia Avdeeva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,642
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tena Lukas | 29c | 1,704$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Julia Avdeeva | 71c | 1,645$1,167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.8 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Tena Lukas | 38c | 1,019$387 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.05 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Julia Avdeeva | 62c | 1,000$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380 | 521 | 52.2%272 W · 249 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…a75ebacked Julia Avdeeva | 71c | 428.76$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.08 | 314 | 43.6%137 W · 177 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tena Lukas | 40c | 199.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…d472backed Julia Avdeeva | 60c | 183.33$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.33 | 1,186 | 52.4%622 W · 564 L | +28.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Tena Lukas | 20c | 174.96$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Julia Avdeeva | 69c | 107.58$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.69 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…4b22backed Julia Avdeeva | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 354 | 57.3%203 W · 151 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Tena Lukas | 37c | 94.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 398 | 51%203 W · 195 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Tena Lukas | 31c | 93.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eef…5275backed Julia Avdeeva | 80c | 62.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 363 | 78.2%284 W · 79 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tena Lukas | 28c | 56.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Julia Avdeeva | 69c | 51.55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Tena Lukas | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8e…08f9backed Julia Avdeeva | 61c | 48.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Tena Lukas | 30c | 42.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.93 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc26c…9d0ebacked Tena Lukas | 34c | 34.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbe…e45bbacked Julia Avdeeva | 60c | 33.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 330 | 48.8%161 W · 169 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42a1…a8e9backed Julia Avdeeva | 75c | 27.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 394 | 51.3%202 W · 192 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Julia Avdeeva | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 923 | 52.5%485 W · 438 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Julia Avdeeva | 79c | 22.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bef…5f5dbacked Julia Avdeeva | 75c | 17.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 139 | 65.5%91 W · 48 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.