Spread: Northern Iowa Panthers (-2.5)

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fc9f8c48a3c82ac78c4a6cc7ea1227e699c2e14171c364d31926a4229813174

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Belmont Bruinsof Northern Iowa Panthers, Belmont Bruins
Resolved: Jan 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $3,168
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $3,168

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,168 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2652…2a1dbacked Belmont Bruins	51c	1,508$769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$738.92	4,848	52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L	+139.2wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Northern Iowa Panthers	49c	1,397$685 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$684.52	1,231	47%578 W · 653 L	-17.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Northern Iowa Panthers	51c	200$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	2,579	47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L	-42.7wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc880…a622backed Belmont Bruins	54c	179$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.34	67	50.7%34 W · 33 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+4.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa521…4599backed Belmont Bruins	53c	114$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.72	69	50.7%35 W · 34 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+10.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Belmont Bruins	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	1,070	46.9%502 W · 568 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Northern Iowa Panthers	48c	100$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	401	47.6%191 W · 210 L	+7.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2587…a117backed Northern Iowa Panthers	52c	99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.48	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	52cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Belmont Bruins	51c	67.99$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.51	1,124	46.4%521 W · 603 L	-25.0wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Northern Iowa Panthers	52c	67$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.84	67	53.7%36 W · 31 L	+4.4wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5253…b898backed Northern Iowa Panthers	46c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	26	50%13 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x521c…64d2backed Northern Iowa Panthers	46c	49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa49…949ebacked Northern Iowa Panthers	52c	38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.76	51	47.1%24 W · 27 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	54cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed Northern Iowa Panthers	49c	30$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.7	152	50%76 W · 76 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf57a…a337backed Belmont Bruins	48c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	17	52.9%9 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5b1…042fbacked Northern Iowa Panthers	46c	27$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.8wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x37e8…441fbacked Belmont Bruins	48c	27$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.04	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	52cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cce…ebfebacked Northern Iowa Panthers	46c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaad7…5557backed Belmont Bruins	51c	24.04$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.78	115	36.5%42 W · 73 L	-6.4wins	-0.06per pick	42cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2a4…aeb8backed Northern Iowa Panthers	46c	24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.04	32	50%16 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb59a…e730backed Northern Iowa Panthers	46c	23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	35	60%21 W · 14 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34b…2f86backed Belmont Bruins	48c	22$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.44	34	55.9%19 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+1.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9431…6270backed Belmont Bruins	48c	21$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.92	38	52.6%20 W · 18 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Northern Iowa Panthers	52c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.92	378	35.7%135 W · 243 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	36cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Spread: Northern Iowa Panthers (-2.5)this page
Belmont Bruins vs. Northern Iowa PanthersBelmont Bruins won
Belmont Bruins vs. Northern Iowa Panthers: O/U 135.5Over won
Belmont Bruins vs. Northern Iowa Panthers: O/U 136.5Over won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Spread: Northern Iowa Panthers (-2.5)

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event