Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x101224a724b944a63837ad3ccd7bd368a2a049820906f4c518c6ec90cd379f8b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 78c | 520.95$405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.37 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 3c | 425.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 8c | 375.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 77c | 259.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.73 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 23c | 223.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.67 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 199.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 23c | 166.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 26c | 156.14$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 25c | 152.02$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 130.65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 129.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 23c | 129.07$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…14e9backed No | 80c | 122.59$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 103.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.78 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 22c | 95.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 26c | 94.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 17c | 93.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 257 | 25.7%66 W · 191 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…e158backed Yes | 15c | 88.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Yes | 16c | 87.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 146 | 13.7%20 W · 126 L | -19.1wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xbcce…65afbacked No | 74c | 86.54$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.7 | 277 | 71.5%198 W · 79 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 78c | 85.3$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.03 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 22c | 80.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.71 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 25c | 77.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 117 | 57.3%67 W · 50 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked No | 71c | 75.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x713a…258dbacked No | 76c | 72.49$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 22c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 68c | 69.07$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.96 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc8…60e3backed Yes | 29c | 66.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd38…ddadbacked No | 76c | 66.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 254 | 49.2%125 W · 129 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 65.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 27c | 50.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed Yes | 26c | 49.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc1…5f7bbacked No | 78c | 48.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 105 | 69.5%73 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed No | 73c | 44.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 28c | 40.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc36f…e5fdbacked Yes | 26c | 38.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +69.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb4f…2c34backed No | 69c | 37.7$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe13a…f8cbbacked No | 75c | 35.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.78 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…7948backed No | 76c | 27.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 79c | 24.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 72c | 23.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…27f9backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 79c | 18.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 78c | 17.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 79c | 17.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.53 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed No | 75c | 14.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…897bbacked No | 77c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 46cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.