Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9b95660160e33a7c2aa2879e6c0dd5f541b52781b1cd155fa020438f1f7bbd8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,185
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,800
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,185 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 75c | 280.35$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 8c | 262.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 261.74$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 8c | 249.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 29c | 213.89$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.12 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 142.91$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b2…4d0bbacked Yes | 10c | 128$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 9cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 117.69$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.26 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 13c | 112.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 39c | 109.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.89 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 25c | 100.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 15c | 96.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 17c | 81.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 35c | 80.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 73c | 75.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 22c | 74.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed No | 61c | 71.17$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.52 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 53c | 63.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.23 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 37c | 63.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 42c | 62.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 50c | 58.55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…780dbacked Yes | 32c | 57.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 25cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 52c | 54.79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 30c | 53.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 148 | 29.7%44 W · 104 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 51c | 50.3$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.66 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…6fe7backed Yes | 28c | 45.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | -5.3wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9d1b…4f09backed Yes | 32c | 44.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 39c | 42.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 47c | 35.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1d…55c4backed Yes | 55c | 34.61$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 51c | 34.07$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 77c | 31.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 53c | 27.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 47c | 21.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x983d…27f9backed No | 74c | 19.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 69cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 76c | 13.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on April 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C or higher on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.