MLB · resolved market
Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1012c60fce7313e039aec2876fe35552cf356d4cb49f1fe889328a501e317996
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Over | 43c | 1,123$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.12 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 43c | 999.96$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.98 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Under | 57c | 877.19$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 57c | 613.04$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.44 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 59c | 291.81$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 235.6$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.29 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 45c | 172.65$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.3 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 60c | 100.01$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.52 | 361 | 57.9%209 W · 152 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 93.52$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 55c | 88.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.7 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Under | 57c | 84.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 41c | 74.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.83 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 55c | 72.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0e…b0babacked Under | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -6.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 41c | 29.48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.39 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.62 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 57c | 23.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 57c | 23.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 57c | 23.38$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 58c | 18.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.