MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a2e4ab200b68de2bf6c19d837edf0787e60364c919604f4e45a708fd24e4e58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,653
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 4,424$2,467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,466.85 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals | 67c | 3,954$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.54 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 3,190$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,195.56 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 2,926$1,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,669.27 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x691a…d113backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 1,169$666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$666.35 | 280 | 49.6%139 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbcc…edc9backed St. Louis Cardinals | 11c | 1,101$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.82 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 606.16$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.56 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 47c | 561.31$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.67 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals | 66c | 477.57$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.56 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 461.68$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.97 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 299.71$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.44 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 268.61$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.75 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 246.49$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.5 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 244.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.39 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 210.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.59 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals | 58c | 181.78$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.85 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbca…ca8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 170.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.42 | 432 | 47%203 W · 229 L | -19.2wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 157.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 136.73$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.94 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Seattle Mariners | 21c | 119.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.49 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 111.16$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.47 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c4…0d90backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 100$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 54 | 29.6%16 W · 38 L | -5.9wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2c…dac5backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 97.42$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 60 | 70%42 W · 18 L | +8.6wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 97.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals | 68c | 94.59$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.4 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Seattle Mariners | 21c | 72.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 59.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Seattle Mariners | 79c | 59.19$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.29 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals | 55c | 55.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 54.91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Seattle Mariners | 22c | 54.11$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Seattle Mariners | 21c | 53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 752 | 44%331 W · 421 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed St. Louis Cardinals | 62c | 52.11$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 49.98$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 49.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 46.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 5,126 | 54.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L | +231.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5410…dcc7backed Seattle Mariners | 23c | 44.83$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.52 | 121 | 28.1%34 W · 87 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…59b9backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 43.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.06 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 43.23$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 43.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.57 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595c…3b03backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 38.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.03 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 38.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2e…d2abbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 34.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 125 | 48%60 W · 65 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 33.57$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Seattle Mariners | 54c | 30.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32eb…f531backed St. Louis Cardinals | 56c | 27.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 95 | 62.1%59 W · 36 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 27.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 26.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 57c | 23.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 22.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked St. Louis Cardinals | 73c | 21.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed St. Louis Cardinals | 51c | 21.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed St. Louis Cardinals | 71c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsSeattle Mariners won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Over won
- Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Seattle Mariners vs. St. Louis CardinalsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.