TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Seattle Marinersof Seattle Mariners, St. Louis Cardinals
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$14,307
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$14,653

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,307 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9495…9a27backed St. Louis Cardinals56c4,424$2,467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,466.852,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed St. Louis Cardinals67c3,954$2,652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,651.5410,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Seattle Mariners31c3,190$995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,195.561,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners43c2,926$1,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.2711,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed St. Louis Cardinals57c1,169$666 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$666.3528049.6%139 W · 141 L+8.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed St. Louis Cardinals11c1,101$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.821861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Seattle Mariners43c1,000$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57014938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Seattle Mariners40c606.16$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.5648850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners47c561.31$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.679,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed St. Louis Cardinals66c477.57$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.566,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners37c461.68$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.9712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed Seattle Mariners42c299.71$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.4412339%48 W · 75 L+0.4wins0.00per pick39cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners36c268.61$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.752,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners43c246.49$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.51,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Seattle Mariners43c244.54$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.392,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Seattle Mariners46c210.35$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.5948150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed St. Louis Cardinals58c181.78$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.852,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbca…ca8dbacked St. Louis Cardinals57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4243247%203 W · 229 L-19.2wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Seattle Mariners46c157.76$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.1948651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed St. Louis Cardinals57c136.73$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9466551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Seattle Mariners21c119.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.4984122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Seattle Mariners42c111.16$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.4741847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe8c4…0d90backed St. Louis Cardinals71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715429.6%16 W · 38 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick40cpaid-23.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0b2c…dac5backed St. Louis Cardinals57c97.42$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.536070%42 W · 18 L+8.6wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+27.7%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed St. Louis Cardinals51c97.42$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.982,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed St. Louis Cardinals68c94.59$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.42,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked Seattle Mariners21c72.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9923522.6%53 W · 182 L-20.7wins-0.09per pick31cpaid-30.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed St. Louis Cardinals57c59.82$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.146659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Seattle Mariners79c59.19$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2953261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed St. Louis Cardinals55c55.73$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.655,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners44c54.91$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.7566448.2%320 W · 344 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Seattle Mariners22c54.11$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.1722949.8%114 W · 115 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Seattle Mariners21c53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8775244%331 W · 421 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed St. Louis Cardinals62c52.11$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4519157.6%110 W · 81 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Seattle Mariners43c49.98$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.491,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners45c49.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.231,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Seattle Mariners40c46.95$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.175,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5410…dcc7backed Seattle Mariners23c44.83$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5212128.1%34 W · 87 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e5a…59b9backed Seattle Mariners45c43.4$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.068943.8%39 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked St. Louis Cardinals71c43.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.75,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Seattle Mariners43c43.11$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.572,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed Seattle Mariners32c38.37$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.034055%22 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3322…7dc2backed Seattle Mariners50c38.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.27635.5%27 W · 49 L-7.9wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-29.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed St. Louis Cardinals57c34.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4833051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b2e…d2abbacked St. Louis Cardinals57c34.18$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4812548%60 W · 65 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Seattle Mariners42c33.57$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.641,19550%597 W · 598 L+5.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x61d3…189abacked Seattle Mariners54c30.29$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9323854.2%129 W · 109 L+11.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+17.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x32eb…f531backed St. Louis Cardinals56c27.74$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.499562.1%59 W · 36 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+8.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf5e…95e3backed Seattle Mariners54c27.41$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6126752.8%141 W · 126 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Seattle Mariners44c26.36$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7649649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked St. Louis Cardinals57c23.93$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6489950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12b4…a662backed St. Louis Cardinals71c22.96$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.351,13357.2%648 W · 485 L+35.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked St. Louis Cardinals73c21.56$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7431650.6%160 W · 156 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed St. Louis Cardinals51c21.12$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.771,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0570…5200backed St. Louis Cardinals71c20.31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.389152.7%48 W · 43 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.