Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x101965bf17238f80e0dcdf331ba2d54535575d1cfed9b54a6d9d2fc4430ef827
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,211
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 349.47$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.56 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb75f…d1b6backed Yes | 42c | 235.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 31c | 193.39$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 68c | 97.18$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 34c | 88.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbec…5088backed Yes | 44c | 86.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 38c | 85.22$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 60c | 81.62$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 80.07$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 68c | 78.36$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 60c | 76.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.22 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 34c | 67$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 30c | 62.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 69c | 61$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 42c | 60$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 56c | 53.19$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x487d…6813backed Yes | 26c | 52.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 30c | 51.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 50c | 48.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 32c | 45.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 56c | 41.8$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 32c | 31.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d64…9190backed No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 29.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 48c | 29.41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 44c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x232a…4895backed No | 71c | 24.7$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -9.8wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1aa…de3abacked No | 65c | 18.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 435 | 63.9%278 W · 157 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 62c | 17.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.71 | 209 | 58.4%122 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.