Tennis · resolved market
Brisbane International, Qualification: Arthur Cazaux vs Pablo Carreno Busta
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x101efad700ecbb2a809b8cc9fc9dc40fa6de239e9bf6561cae213b04e48a6ea9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bustaof Cazaux, Busta
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Cazaux | 0c | 3,787$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…6f9abacked Cazaux | 72c | 2,688$1,927 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,926.91 | 930 | 55.8%519 W · 411 L | +23.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Busta | 28c | 1,300$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Busta | 28c | 1,173$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$844.56 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Busta | 38c | 953.47$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$587.75 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Busta | 34c | 699.59$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.7 | 279 | 44.1%123 W · 156 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Busta | 39c | 607.94$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.98 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Cazaux | 4c | 600$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Busta | 28c | 566.99$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.69 | 730 | 48.8%356 W · 374 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb893…bf4bbacked Cazaux | 72c | 417.44$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 632 | 47.6%301 W · 331 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cazaux | 61c | 357.73$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.24 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked Cazaux | 4c | 300$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 136 | 8.1%11 W · 125 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Cazaux | 73c | 274.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Busta | 29c | 199.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.99 | 228 | 40.4%92 W · 136 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf41…5562backed Busta | 29c | 152.2$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.06 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Cazaux | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 64cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac4…0f3bbacked Cazaux | 71c | 139.87$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.31 | 70 | 32.9%23 W · 47 L | -5.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +49.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Busta | 27c | 115.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.59 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Busta | 32c | 100$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 372 | 38.2%142 W · 230 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…8f96backed Cazaux | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 178 | 63.5%113 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Cazaux | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Cazaux | 61c | 98$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 191 | 67%128 W · 63 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…5557backed Busta | 30c | 71.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.83 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Busta | 28c | 71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.12 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7163…3601backed Cazaux | 30c | 68.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cazaux | 30c | 67.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked Busta | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 127 | 52%66 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Cazaux | 72c | 42.85$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.85 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1723…9d18backed Cazaux | 72c | 36.81$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c37…9e0cbacked Busta | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +233.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd29b…b518backed Cazaux | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 108 | 43.5%47 W · 61 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Busta | 52c | 34.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Cazaux | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa450…8515backed Cazaux | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Busta | 40c | 27.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…88e5backed Cazaux | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 62.4%63 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef5e…4c1dbacked Cazaux | 71c | 24.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.