Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x103df810511d64a95712bd6212665ec1bab729ec03329457129ccfaff2e8e0e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,772
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 3c | 399.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 7c | 392.54$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 15c | 383.94$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 9c | 275.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 266$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 13c | 236.45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 28c | 185.67$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.7 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked Yes | 11c | 181.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 169.1$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 27c | 145.81$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 76c | 126.88$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.68 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 25c | 112.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.21 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 28c | 107.13$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf883…c27fbacked Yes | 9c | 105.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -72.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 80c | 71.71$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.46 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 72c | 63.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.72 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…1de3backed No | 77c | 59.13$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -4.6wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 20c | 57.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…dc99backed Yes | 30c | 48.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +122.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 70c | 41.22$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 39.25$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ee…93abbacked No | 72c | 33.75$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 72c | 23.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.