Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc1a7b0f7d7d946d19a1d70b7f197bb08931590aea9c87c3b9072adc50d3ddf05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,623
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc17e…906abacked No | 55c | 931.19$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.27 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…7d37backed No | 79c | 800$635 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.35 | 67 | 67.2%45 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 43c | 448.39$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 50c | 374.51$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.43 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 65c | 339.55$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 286.48$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 75c | 265.99$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 48c | 235.58$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.75 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 33c | 189.62$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.35 | 633 | 23.9%151 W · 482 L | -20.0wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 71c | 186.48$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 24c | 183$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.57 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 19c | 170.93$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.7 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 56c | 156.99$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…7f79backed Yes | 63c | 151.41$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 56c | 142.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.19 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 60c | 142.43$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.97 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 48c | 142.17$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.21 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07a…f97abacked No | 45c | 139.03$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.56 | 127 | 17.3%22 W · 105 L | -10.2wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 25c | 135.86$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 44c | 135.77$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 41c | 132.82$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.98 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76f7…d7cdbacked Yes | 77c | 130.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.33 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 40c | 125.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.12 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed Yes | 25c | 105.01$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 41c | 101.25$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.33 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 77c | 100.02$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.12 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…a1c4backed No | 47c | 99.68$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked Yes | 71c | 85.39$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 56c | 83.03$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.12 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f5e…f41cbacked Yes | 50c | 78.17$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc09…467fbacked No | 18c | 76.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc82c…c866backed No | 23c | 76.36$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 52c | 74.76$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb95c…3af3backed Yes | 48c | 64.69$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed No | 39c | 62.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…17c0backed Yes | 60c | 61.22$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.49 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…119fbacked Yes | 76c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 54c | 59.66$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.47 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x635a…cccbbacked Yes | 56c | 58.02$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.3wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 37c | 57.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.35 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 45c | 55.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 58c | 55.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.01 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 62c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 58c | 51.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2480…1a9bbacked Yes | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 45c | 49.45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.3 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd314…12d9backed No | 43c | 47.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fde…b480backed Yes | 56c | 45.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 31c | 44.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 24c | 44.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa912…297fbacked No | 51c | 43.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 636 | 56.1%357 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 56c | 43.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 39c | 37.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…7e96backed Yes | 62c | 36.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c6…c7bfbacked No | 43c | 36.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | -6.1wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 34.47$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 33.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x48b5…3300backed Yes | 57c | 32.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb17…ee85backed Yes | 52c | 31.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 77 | 39%30 W · 47 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 57c | 28.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bb…b0f7backed Yes | 58c | 28.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c4…2fa9backed Yes | 45c | 28.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.77 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 65c | 27.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab07…1291backed No | 45c | 27.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f1…fbecbacked Yes | 56c | 26.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +90.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 49c | 25.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 25.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.42 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 25.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914b…0927backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x796a…e815backed Yes | 57c | 24.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca5…4342backed No | 43c | 24.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 76 | 56.6%43 W · 33 L | -6.0wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 45c | 23.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 43c | 23.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea1…435ebacked Yes | 58c | 22.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe9b…156cbacked No | 53c | 19.27$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec7c…7ad4backed Yes | 58c | 19.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 190 | 37.4%71 W · 119 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…ad94backed Yes | 57c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 331 | 39.6%131 W · 200 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 79c | 12.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.68 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on April 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on April 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on April 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.