UFC · resolved market
Zayunokov vs. Caldas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1054e637f6529f041cfca74658f66ef99ab677ec00a043c9d265396ec3815c96
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Zayunokovof Zayunokov, Caldas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Caldas | 23c | 2,287$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.31 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Zayunokov | 75c | 1,855$1,384 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.4 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff33…4aedbacked Zayunokov | 76c | 1,322$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Caldas | 24c | 1,203$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.65 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Caldas | 27c | 719$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.13 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e194backed Zayunokov | 78c | 655.96$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.31 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Zayunokov | 75c | 500.29$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.78 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +47%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Caldas | 25c | 500$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 267 | 43.8%117 W · 150 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Zayunokov | 74c | 379.38$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.4 | 309 | 64.7%200 W · 109 L | +24.5wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Caldas | 27c | 351.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.46 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Caldas | 22c | 209.98$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Zayunokov | 70c | 204.3$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Zayunokov | 78c | 203.57$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Zayunokov | 75c | 179.67$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.05 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e17…e4d4backed Zayunokov | 79c | 136.22$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bce…6c1dbacked Zayunokov | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 65 | 69.2%45 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecf4…9979backed Caldas | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…f165backed Caldas | 28c | 116.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Caldas | 30c | 85.63$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Zayunokov | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…ce8bbacked Zayunokov | 76c | 68.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf058…e173backed Zayunokov | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 134 | 65.7%88 W · 46 L | +10.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Caldas | 26c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 192 | 30.7%59 W · 133 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265e…78bebacked Zayunokov | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd395…d76abacked Zayunokov | 78c | 24.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd48…b205backed Zayunokov | 75c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9512…c0d3backed Zayunokov | 77c | 20.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Zayunokov vs. Caldasthis page
- Luna vs. VologdinLuna won
- Pergentino vs. FernandezFernandez won
- Rodriguez vs. ConceiçãoRodriguez won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.