UFC · resolved market
Luna vs. Vologdin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcda7e3fac8beab2dd32b9387734137d90fe33de59cf1cdb420482fb94a3bc295
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lunaof Luna, Vologdin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,897
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Vologdin | 63c | 1,886$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.18 | 177 | 52%92 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb852…bfaebacked Luna | 37c | 1,016$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.29 | 89 | 39.3%35 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Luna | 39c | 708.53$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$432.2 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Vologdin | 61c | 700$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Luna | 37c | 664.45$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.58 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…9b08backed Luna | 75c | 533.31$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.88 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2765…7ee4backed Luna | 34c | 327.8$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.35 | 202 | 49%99 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Luna | 44c | 309.08$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.99 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7a…1eecbacked Vologdin | 66c | 227.27$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 298 | 48.7%145 W · 153 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Vologdin | 55c | 220.2$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.57 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Vologdin | 12c | 190$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x285b…5231backed Luna | 44c | 184$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.04 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Vologdin | 60c | 129.3$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ed0…92debacked Luna | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 122 | 45.1%55 W · 67 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Vologdin | 66c | 110.91$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Vologdin | 61c | 106.12$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +14.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Vologdin | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 47.8%65 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Vologdin | 60c | 55.32$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Luna | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 167 | 36.5%61 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2230…a66cbacked Vologdin | 26c | 43.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Vologdin | 47c | 41.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Luna vs. Vologdinthis page
- Pergentino vs. FernandezFernandez won
- Rodriguez vs. ConceiçãoRodriguez won
- Zayunokov vs. CaldasZayunokov won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.