Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: USC Trojans (-4.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x108f4726708d7e6c1b26a6305b19101e44a07a84a51d3cdd8e41b5ad37b88718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn State Nittany Lionsof USC Trojans, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,630
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,630 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 57c | 877.2$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.2 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked USC Trojans | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1,260 | 43.3%545 W · 715 L | +34.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked USC Trojans | 45c | 333.33$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc0…099dbacked USC Trojans | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 44 | 45.5%20 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed USC Trojans | 44c | 155$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked USC Trojans | 48c | 54$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 54c | 50.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.96 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 54c | 47.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.94 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 56c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.28 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4a…4fb5backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 74 | 59.5%44 W · 30 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 56c | 34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 1,985 | 64.1%1,273 W · 712 L | +144.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60a6…7ed2backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e9…6613backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 56c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 57c | 21.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.43 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +6.8wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 306 | 52%159 W · 147 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 56c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +6.3wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +32%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC Trojans (-4.5)this page
- Spread: USC Trojans (-3.5)Penn State Nittany Lions won
- USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany LionsUSC Trojans won
- USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 154.5Under won
- USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.