Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: USC Trojans (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70c5aca43c46866ea0543b1d79367fab7900d27293a5b90586c983af18c7447e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penn State Nittany Lionsof USC Trojans, Penn State Nittany Lions
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $250,450
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $250,450 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 198,980$104,470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94,510.84 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed USC Trojans | 47c | 64,623$30,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30,372.95 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…544cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 46,990$24,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,625 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked USC Trojans | 48c | 38,065$18,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,119.79 | 1,436 | 47.5%682 W · 754 L | -18.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked USC Trojans | 47c | 32,189$15,276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,276.42 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed USC Trojans | 49c | 30,400$14,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,824.75 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked USC Trojans | 47c | 12,484$5,917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,917.19 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed USC Trojans | 47c | 12,385$5,821 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,821.14 | 1,397 | 52.7%736 W · 661 L | +26.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed USC Trojans | 48c | 10,435$5,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,008.8 | 746 | 49.2%367 W · 379 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked USC Trojans | 48c | 10,020$4,809 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,809.45 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed USC Trojans | 48c | 9,004$4,322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,322 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a2…ae70backed USC Trojans | 48c | 5,453$2,617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,617.44 | 148 | 54.1%80 W · 68 L | +7.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc949…fa93backed USC Trojans | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 185 | 48.6%90 W · 95 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked USC Trojans | 48c | 4,167$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 232 | 43.5%101 W · 131 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed USC Trojans | 47c | 3,835$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800.41 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed USC Trojans | 50c | 2,618$1,298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,297.84 | 1,074 | 47%505 W · 569 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed USC Trojans | 48c | 2,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 277 | 55.2%153 W · 124 L | +19.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x021c…232fbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$940 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed USC Trojans | 48c | 1,598$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.08 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed USC Trojans | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 351 | 47.6%167 W · 184 L | -9.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed USC Trojans | 48c | 831.15$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.43 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c7…d11ebacked USC Trojans | 48c | 335.86$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.56 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked USC Trojans | 49c | 306.11$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4,552 | 50.1%2,279 W · 2,273 L | -36.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed USC Trojans | 50c | 204$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 841 | 47.4%399 W · 442 L | -13.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed USC Trojans | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -9.6wins | -0.26per pick | 45cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 33-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf484…0e02backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 52c | 191.82$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.3 | 574 | 48.3%277 W · 297 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…e6f5backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 150$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.5 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 47c | 147$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.91 | 754 | 47.1%355 W · 399 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 51c | 140.98$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.48 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed USC Trojans | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 352 | 43.2%152 W · 200 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed USC Trojans | 50c | 64.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.31 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda16…6da2backed USC Trojans | 48c | 62.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 383 | 45.4%174 W · 209 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 64c | 57.83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.03 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf395…ac0abacked USC Trojans | 52c | 54$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 356 | 50.8%181 W · 175 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed USC Trojans | 23c | 50.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 576 | 55%317 W · 259 L | +17.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed USC Trojans | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9ab6backed USC Trojans | 48c | 37.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 85 | 56.5%48 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 34.8$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 682 | 54.3%370 W · 312 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked USC Trojans | 44c | 33.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed USC Trojans | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed USC Trojans | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…bbe8backed USC Trojans | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed USC Trojans | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -5.0wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdc55…9f7cbacked USC Trojans | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed USC Trojans | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked USC Trojans | 47c | 29.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73e…43f1backed USC Trojans | 50c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78df…b894backed USC Trojans | 48c | 25.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed USC Trojans | 48c | 24.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1,249 | 16.4%205 W · 1,044 L | -189.4wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51.1%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…790bbacked Penn State Nittany Lions | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +6.8wins | +0.36per pick | 54cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Penn State Nittany Lions | 70c | 20.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.17 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked USC Trojans | 50c | 20.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC Trojans (-3.5)this page
- Spread: USC Trojans (-4.5)Penn State Nittany Lions won
- USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany LionsUSC Trojans won
- USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 154.5Under won
- USC Trojans vs. Penn State Nittany Lions: O/U 155.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.