South American Leagues · resolved market
AA Estudiantes vs. CA Huracán: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10ae916427979a323ab37503550ec6177bc6df80f4f8eb074cebc2e525b5d492
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 56c | 3,111$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.87 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 40c | 2,360$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,415.99 | 367 | 27%99 W · 268 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 46c | 1,865$850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,015.27 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 55c | 1,244$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.62 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 55c | 804.54$446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$446.42 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 57c | 499.99$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.99 | 100 | 69%69 W · 31 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdecf…caf2backed Over | 75c | 364.4$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.4 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -5.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 45c | 346.26$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.16 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Over | 44c | 329.43$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.43 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 43c | 300$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 166 | 56%93 W · 73 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee26…9dcabacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Under | 43c | 184.93$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…1d41backed Over | 51c | 172.07$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.66 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 164.33$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91e…b045backed Under | 11c | 114.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.38 | 493 | 41%202 W · 291 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 45c | 90.4$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…e91cbacked Over | 57c | 87.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 77.34$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 62c | 66.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 49c | 57.14$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.14 | 56 | 46.4%26 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1878…85e2backed Under | 63c | 55.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…4c57backed Over | 44c | 54.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.79 | 74 | 20.3%15 W · 59 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 59c | 54.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.17 | 449 | 39.2%176 W · 273 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Under | 43c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 130 | 41.5%54 W · 76 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over | 48c | 46.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Over | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 100 | 33%33 W · 67 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Under | 68c | 34.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 235 | 42.1%99 W · 136 L | -13.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 50c | 31$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…3ea1backed Over | 76c | 29.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x269f…c358backed Under | 62c | 25.84$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0742…86a0backed Over | 45c | 25.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 62 | 21%13 W · 49 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -21%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1a…d5a3backed Under | 60c | 25.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Under | 62c | 22.53$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed3f…2d57backed Under | 62c | 20.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 114 | 61.4%70 W · 44 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Huracán: O/U 1.5this page
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Huracán: O/U 2.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Huracán: O/U 3.5Under won
- AA Estudiantes vs. CA Huracán: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-1.5)AA Estudiantes won
- Spread: AA Estudiantes (-2.5)CA Huracán won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.