Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10c4ab3d3dc54ccdf5dacad272c92381fcc30405e75ca9b761365c313eb35047
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,690
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,118
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,690 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa96a…1377backed No | 62c | 626.81$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.39 | 541 | 43.6%236 W · 305 L | -12.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 32c | 175.6$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.54 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a42…8da8backed No | 70c | 169.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 388 | 40.7%158 W · 230 L | -14.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 27c | 137.36$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 74c | 129.84$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 115.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b9…3296backed Yes | 31c | 114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.34 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 69c | 109.69$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.17 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 28c | 101.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…f1b1backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 100 | 51%51 W · 49 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfced…03d9backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | +7.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f6…628cbacked No | 76c | 87.45$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.39 | 67 | 55.2%37 W · 30 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a38…ada9backed Yes | 26c | 86.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 236 | 33.1%78 W · 158 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…b75bbacked Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…0308backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 358 | 43.9%157 W · 201 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ac6…b2edbacked Yes | 26c | 68.83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d9…5dc8backed Yes | 41c | 66.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 26c | 60.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd98d…1179backed Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 232 | 31%72 W · 160 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea4…2bd2backed No | 75c | 57.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 54c | 52.01$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.34 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 65c | 49.68$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 49.65$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.02 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d5…9f2abacked Yes | 42c | 48.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f6…5d2dbacked Yes | 22c | 46.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 77 | 19.5%15 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 68c | 46.34$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd45…c05ebacked No | 66c | 43.3$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b2…319bbacked No | 77c | 43.3$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 27 | 77.8%21 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…652abacked Yes | 33c | 40.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.09 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 67c | 38.5$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9df…4e7cbacked Yes | 35c | 38.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bd2…eb9dbacked Yes | 30c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db3…4b0fbacked Yes | 42c | 33.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca85…fe6cbacked No | 35c | 32.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 222 | 36.5%81 W · 141 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed No | 35c | 32.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d84…2c45backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a28…7f61backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 85 | 57.6%49 W · 36 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4710…1527backed Yes | 59c | 25.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 19.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5463…df6bbacked No | 73c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 73c | 18.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…678cbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on February 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C or below on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 36°C on February 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 37°C or higher on February 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.