Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10caa05c09a53827958fc2b7305581e83ed03f00c98ccd0acee058efdee43092
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, Rune Eaters
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,706
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked VP.Prodigy | 56c | 754.34$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.38 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Rune Eaters | 27c | 669.37$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.08 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed Rune Eaters | 34c | 593.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Rune Eaters | 13c | 548.61$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 70c | 400$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Rune Eaters | 54c | 400$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked VP.Prodigy | 68c | 319.91$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.88 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b4…6313backed Rune Eaters | 53c | 307$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.8 | 161 | 60.2%97 W · 64 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b0…ad2cbacked VP.Prodigy | 73c | 255.88$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked VP.Prodigy | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed VP.Prodigy | 50c | 101$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb79…6274backed Rune Eaters | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 171 | 52%89 W · 82 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed VP.Prodigy | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed VP.Prodigy | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d31…07b0backed Rune Eaters | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 252 | 55.2%139 W · 113 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - European Pro League Group AVP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs Rune Eaters - Game 1 WinnerRune Eaters won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.