MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10f550d9d4dc7f0e64eb6b01726fda2598e9d395990b8ab2d5db7ce23becf6e4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,002
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,026
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,002 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Over | 44c | 5,461$2,415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,414.74 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,200 | 342 | 45%154 W · 188 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 54c | 3,569$1,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.91 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -22.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 45c | 1,419$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.49 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Under | 55c | 1,400$770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 106 | 46.2%49 W · 57 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Over | 45c | 1,293$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.77 | 1,328 | 51.4%682 W · 646 L | +25.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 55c | 1,099$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.56 | 731 | 49.4%361 W · 370 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a32…6d7ebacked Under | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 96 | 51%49 W · 47 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 44c | 935$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.4 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Over | 46c | 873.91$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf267…0a4cbacked Under | 55c | 700$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Under | 55c | 350$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.5 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 56c | 300$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 667 | 51.9%346 W · 321 L | +30.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 278.71$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.63 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Under | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedae…584fbacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x956f…f960backed Under | 62c | 80.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Under | 56c | 49.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 197 | 47.2%93 W · 104 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3396…759fbacked Under | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.95 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe6…5cdabacked Under | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 108 | 61.1%66 W · 42 L | +5.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Twins vs. RangersTwins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.