Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1118d7423873b031d05bc1e0c03f0b430a58866b1276ca0de0b0b98980eaf12b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,127
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,641
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,127 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 65c | 387.03$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.27 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 16c | 305.15$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7c…1558backed No | 9c | 287.49$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 21c | 213.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.39 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 54c | 207.14$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.69 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 18c | 199.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -8.6wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…e823backed No | 44c | 159.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 68c | 147$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5645…5d21backed Yes | 71c | 140.81$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +23%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 9c | 134.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 14c | 128.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd108…5bc2backed No | 17c | 120.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 37c | 104.46$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.61 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 59c | 97.21$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.11 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 63c | 79.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 80c | 74.8$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…a28dbacked Yes | 80c | 70$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 55c | 62.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5576…59e9backed Yes | 69c | 58.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.22 | 170 | 33.5%57 W · 113 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 55c | 58.11$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9e0…e41dbacked Yes | 69c | 48$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…4785backed Yes | 55c | 47.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a25…8055backed No | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 197 | 64.5%127 W · 70 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…c6c8backed No | 35c | 43.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 49c | 41.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…80e0backed Yes | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bfb…b57dbacked No | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 28.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 74c | 27.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 80c | 25.65$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked No | 44c | 24.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9c1…be67backed Yes | 66c | 15.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 34 | 88.2%30 W · 4 L | +7.2wins | +0.21per pick | 67cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or higher on May 3?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on May 3?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.