Europa Conference League · resolved market
Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112c3b6bb96e1fae845f7bfb21baa4a28a268faf2ce09ecd8451890c75cd0cc1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,407
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 71c | 1,710$1,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.94 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 38c | 1,436$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.98 | 2,473 | 33.9%839 W · 1,634 L | -95.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 33c | 1,099$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.45 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2a16…5f47backed No | 55c | 199.97$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.98 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 78c | 192.31$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.31 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.15per pick | 63cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb002…103dbacked Yes | 46c | 98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x888c…19f9backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Yes | 57c | 85.96$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.4wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 46c | 73.32$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 1,114 | 35.8%399 W · 715 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 20c | 62.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Yes | 80c | 61.49$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5252…7aa2backed Yes | 45c | 46.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d6b…5cd9backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +164.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d8c…e634backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +81.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa46f…87c3backed No | 50c | 36.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Yes | 45c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…6e8dbacked Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9409…5b36backed Yes | 48c | 29.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.59 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc70…7db5backed No | 56c | 18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: Draw at halftime?this page
- Crystal Palace FC leading at halftime?No won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.