Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on May 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x112c604df83125894b663ac15d648e61930334545fed8a29ce6a6d217b9c1cb2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 8c | 368.34$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…bc23backed No | 58c | 343.99$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.52 | 811 | 65.8%534 W · 277 L | -37.1wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 32c | 341$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.73 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 68c | 261.13$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.57 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 42c | 235$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 70c | 234.88$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 72c | 198.03$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.73 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98b…626abacked Yes | 76c | 149.33$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.51 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 12c | 148.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 12c | 147.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed Yes | 62c | 143.61$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.11 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed No | 31c | 143.58$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.75 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x322a…096fbacked No | 31c | 125.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 66 | 22.7%15 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2671…a5fabacked Yes | 70c | 120.89$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.09 | 190 | 59.5%113 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 67c | 110.35$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 42c | 109.14$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 77c | 90.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 67c | 72.01$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdee5…67bfbacked No | 27c | 68.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbccf…95e1backed No | 34c | 64.15$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…b076backed Yes | 65c | 61.53$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 208 | 35.6%74 W · 134 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ede…9e87backed Yes | 71c | 58.32$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.76 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 69c | 55$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c5e…a8cfbacked No | 32c | 55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 99 | 59.6%59 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 34c | 51.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked No | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Yes | 69c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.7 | 141 | 34.8%49 W · 92 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 35c | 49.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…d898backed Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 52c | 43.35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e9…fba8backed Yes | 72c | 40.52$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 33c | 36.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 67c | 32.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 73c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 68c | 26.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd082…b5e8backed Yes | 66c | 22.73$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabaf…0015backed Yes | 63c | 21.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x937f…8362backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e37…9a37backed Yes | 71c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc80f…6147backed Yes | 68c | 19.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.42 | 525 | 33.7%177 W · 348 L | +22.8wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb060…9572backed Yes | 74c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f5…6b1bbacked Yes | 75c | 16.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +34%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5147…f078backed Yes | 72c | 15.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be 71°F or below on May 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 72-73°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on May 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on May 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.