Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel invade Lebanon before May?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1151eebf20ae146538ca696e0e0c46873caec6bbed51263dc15d48b740577ba2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $186,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $164,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $186,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3cf3…87b3backed Yes | 2c | 62,027$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.63 | 98 | 15.3%15 W · 83 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…f2cbbacked Yes | 7c | 15,600$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.24 | 76 | 10.5%8 W · 68 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539f…cdcfbacked Yes | 4c | 8,569$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.43 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -78.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Yes | 5c | 6,441$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.2 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -6.2wins | -0.10per pick | 22cpaid | -76.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc411…caa7backed Yes | 7c | 3,598$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a15…0246backed Yes | 6c | 2,825$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdec9…56e8backed Yes | 3c | 1,034$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64cf…8a8abacked Yes | 4c | 769.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 3c | 717.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 4.2%4 W · 92 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf118…1f58backed Yes | 8c | 623.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 404 | 33.7%136 W · 268 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e07…49a3backed Yes | 6c | 416.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 5c | 252.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbfd…0029backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae2…e50fbacked Yes | 10c | 250$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 8c | 249.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e01…393fbacked Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b35…6155backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x837e…27dfbacked Yes | 10c | 128.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.