NBA · resolved market
Will the Thunder beat the Nuggets 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11556e7343f919732b27502a3b03746fe9a82ca6189da9354cf2dc6b7d853485
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,687
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,541
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,687 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 22c | 5,407$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.32 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed No | 79c | 3,811$3,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.18 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40e…a94dbacked No | 78c | 3,438$2,682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 21c | 2,222$467 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.62 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Yes | 31c | 1,148$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.34 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 69c | 972.39$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.44 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Yes | 30c | 900$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…1b1cbacked No | 70c | 900$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 21c | 840.3$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.46 | 333 | 48.9%163 W · 170 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd353…f6acbacked No | 78c | 636.56$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.04 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 73c | 247.79$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 68c | 27.22$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Thunder beat the Nuggets 4-1?this page
- Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-0?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-1?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-2?No won
- Will the Nuggets beat the Thunder 4-3?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Nuggets 4-2?No won
- Will the Thunder beat the Nuggets 4-3?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.