Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x119480d805fbbcd2e95395dbe07976c6dca10d9ab36694253d089484a67245e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,432
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,432 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 36c | 310.54$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.27 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1796…c490backed Yes | 78c | 266.03$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.19 | 48 | 70.8%34 W · 14 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 75c | 178$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f19…e819backed Yes | 31c | 160.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 529 | 35.7%189 W · 340 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +24%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 25c | 150.94$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 124.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x804d…cf86backed No | 53c | 120.75$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 75 | 52%39 W · 36 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 61c | 101.79$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.73 | 600 | 54.2%325 W · 275 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 25c | 87.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.06 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 56c | 86$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 20c | 82.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 24c | 77.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…9418backed Yes | 75c | 76.69$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.1wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x451a…3b01backed No | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked Yes | 23c | 64.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 26c | 63.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 23c | 63.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 24c | 62.64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.64 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked Yes | 31c | 55.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.96 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 27c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfea5…ee06backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 270 | 29.3%79 W · 191 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…3289backed Yes | 22c | 49.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 48.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.88 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…bdf5backed Yes | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 40.88$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 74c | 34.14$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b6…4ad7backed No | 44c | 33.53$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.64 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…c974backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…852abacked No | 73c | 27.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.57 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -4.0wins | -0.19per pick | 72cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 42c | 24.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 45c | 23.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 52c | 19.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 76c | 19.9$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 79c | 17.28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 76c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -9.2wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 14.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 14.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C on June 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 15°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 16°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 18°C on June 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 19°C on June 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.