NBA · resolved market
NBA Finals G5: Will SGA score 35+ points against the Pacers?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11b91b66cf48c3e2d67db8d124c4d1daa32d8bee245fb2120a91aac208e331af
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,677
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,677 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3e04…564dbacked Yes | 47c | 4,000$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,880 | 168 | 44%74 W · 94 L | -11.8wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed No | 53c | 2,369$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,113.61 | 88 | 40.9%36 W · 52 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…01efbacked No | 53c | 1,132$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$532.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2728…4f96backed Yes | 51c | 1,089$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.33 | 130 | 37.7%49 W · 81 L | -14.4wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed No | 53c | 792.02$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.71 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c9…bb9ebacked Yes | 48c | 679.84$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.72 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed No | 51c | 512.61$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.2 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed No | 49c | 499.99$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…9bcbbacked No | 49c | 236.85$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Yes | 46c | 205.38$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.47 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | +12.8wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5113…f0babacked No | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28da…b97dbacked Yes | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbc…5d23backed No | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…0ee5backed No | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 286 | 51.4%147 W · 139 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c20…0a7ebacked No | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed No | 52c | 82.69$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.69 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 49c | 80$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc376…a8e7backed No | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 317 | 48.9%155 W · 162 L | -12.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x218e…e49dbacked Yes | 60c | 19.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 482 | 55%265 W · 217 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.