Champions League · resolved market
Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11d5e7278cae591fc4b407fffe4f3ec4543f18fdd200775112a29946d1c836b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,317
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,248
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,317 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa880…d095backed Yes | 18c | 2,236$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…9fd5backed Yes | 19c | 1,702$317 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07f6…2ed5backed Yes | 19c | 1,032$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7569…79ebbacked Yes | 16c | 688$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 80c | 403.95$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.79 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6151…d97bbacked Yes | 19c | 394.45$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 11c | 349.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b21…41fabacked Yes | 16c | 316.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa256…fc1ebacked Yes | 17c | 297.92$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.65 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 18c | 278$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.04 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 19c | 261.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd566…3e2dbacked Yes | 18c | 260.21$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb3…e68cbacked Yes | 17c | 249.97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.22per pick | 44cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 18c | 240.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74cd…2319backed Yes | 10c | 217.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 107 | 17.8%19 W · 88 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 19c | 211.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xecbe…42ffbacked Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 36 | 19.4%7 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d63…aa21backed Yes | 18c | 185.96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a1…32d3backed Yes | 19c | 137.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…8251backed Yes | 17c | 118.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…e21cbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…50c3backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf1d…6c3bbacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba64…3808backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 39cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a7d…55f3backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 19c | 80.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed Yes | 16c | 65.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich?this page
- Will Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain?Yes won
- Will the match between Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.