Champions League · resolved market
Will Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c65791672c36c391965520567db43640176acb4edcfeafdec2fdcfbedc30c99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,007
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc7ed…6c8bbacked No | 17c | 8,888$1,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,510.96 | 102 | 32.4%33 W · 69 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed No | 37c | 6,000$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,219.95 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked No | 22c | 2,851$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.41 | 242 | 52.5%127 W · 115 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 36c | 2,591$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.84 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ab…5eb9backed Yes | 78c | 2,186$1,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.47 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0113…6f26backed No | 39c | 1,962$765 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$765 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a26…1851backed Yes | 64c | 1,959$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.19 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 11c | 1,821$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.22 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 37c | 1,699$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.52 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2de…6e3ebacked Yes | 60c | 1,592$955 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a56…a644backed Yes | 68c | 1,388$950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 1c | 1,314$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f92…b5f8backed No | 39c | 1,282$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…4873backed No | 40c | 1,250$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…f11cbacked No | 4c | 1,004$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Yes | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71cd…912dbacked No | 9c | 999$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 132 | 32.6%43 W · 89 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +172.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 15c | 807.72$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.73 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 63c | 796.83$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.83 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa289…d95cbacked Yes | 69c | 762.36$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.23 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…4583backed Yes | 80c | 752.36$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.47 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf464…4761backed Yes | 61c | 672.13$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.13 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…4bccbacked Yes | 65c | 640$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7990…c870backed Yes | 64c | 620.86$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.86 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb88d…291abacked Yes | 63c | 596.25$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 36c | 490.5$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.58 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 63c | 404.76$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.76 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Yes | 61c | 399.99$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156 | 98 | 40.8%40 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae11…ff1bbacked Yes | 63c | 361.21$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…0d45backed Yes | 63c | 358.6$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 63c | 323.85$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.82 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa645…0be6backed Yes | 63c | 281.89$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.3 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…a171backed No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e8…0819backed Yes | 63c | 247.62$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.62 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d6…e85bbacked Yes | 63c | 200.89$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x130e…3db6backed No | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 63c | 200$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa075…09fdbacked Yes | 63c | 197.56$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.1 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 52cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6b…57c5backed Yes | 63c | 187.06$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf9e…0587backed Yes | 62c | 159.39$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d59…f80dbacked Yes | 63c | 158.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1eed…0c9abacked Yes | 63c | 139.02$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.44 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed Yes | 63c | 135$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.6 | 131 | 39.7%52 W · 79 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…ed9dbacked Yes | 63c | 128.7$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.62 | 109 | 31.2%34 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ef…e2c9backed Yes | 63c | 126.98$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.98 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 61c | 114.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccff…e845backed No | 34c | 110$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b61…78e8backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.63per pick | 38cpaid | +240.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacd0…e030backed Yes | 70c | 81.3$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.28 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 29c | 80.68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa50f…f999backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -8.3wins | -0.20per pick | 52cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcb16…3057backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 63c | 74.61$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…a2f1backed Yes | 67c | 70$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf765…cdfebacked Yes | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 37c | 51.2$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…f42fbacked Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…c689backed Yes | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f58…ec8abacked Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe438…9471backed Yes | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20e7…257cbacked Yes | 66c | 45.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4211…8a79backed Yes | 63c | 39.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351c…2db3backed Yes | 67c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Yes | 69c | 34.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68ca…68b0backed Yes | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda3d…9964backed Yes | 66c | 28.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24dc…c152backed Yes | 63c | 27.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad9…b0c1backed Yes | 63c | 24.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…9666backed Yes | 63c | 22.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d16…a1b6backed Yes | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb8a…a2f2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x753d…2c5fbacked Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayern Munich beat Paris Saint-Germain?this page
- Will Paris Saint-Germain beat Bayern Munich?No won
- Will the match between Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.