Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11f4a41c0a568bae081f7e9f35c8bc04a56ede377d1e2ec8f097e2f1a981e5d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,678
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa02b…70d6backed PARIVISION | 16c | 732.71$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked PARIVISION | 42c | 717.65$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.24 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3f…6941backed Natus Vincere | 55c | 245.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.13 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +7.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked PARIVISION | 60c | 244.19$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.64 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked PARIVISION | 45c | 240$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Natus Vincere | 45c | 200$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 210 | 45.7%96 W · 114 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55d9…832cbacked PARIVISION | 45c | 181.82$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 419 | 44.2%185 W · 234 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Natus Vincere | 55c | 176.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.3 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf012…7354backed Natus Vincere | 36c | 66.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Natus Vincere | 40c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5f…8eadbacked PARIVISION | 60c | 43.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 126 | 55.6%70 W · 56 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Natus Vincere | 50c | 20.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 171 | 46.8%80 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe339…5a82backed PARIVISION | 50c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 37.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 41.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.