Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6f8b97c2b75258579ab2de8ad0cbf02bb5f3b2959fdffd8ee90c66bfa036c75f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PARIVISIONof PARIVISION, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9eca…5a59backed PARIVISION | 71c | 23,882$17,026 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,856.15 | 400 | 51.5%206 W · 194 L | -6.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 6,179$1,662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,662.26 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 4,260$1,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.38 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 2,923$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$846.21 | 897 | 49.6%445 W · 452 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82dc…5700backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 2,868$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.92 | 686 | 49.7%341 W · 345 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b0…329ebacked PARIVISION | 74c | 2,787$2,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.6 | 802 | 56%449 W · 353 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2924…0f31backed Natus Vincere | 15c | 2,310$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$346.78 | 470 | 46.6%219 W · 251 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d39…6053backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 2,155$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.02 | 1,036 | 47.2%489 W · 547 L | +15.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 2,126$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610.61 | 1,155 | 47.8%552 W · 603 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf94f…9adabacked PARIVISION | 77c | 2,039$1,567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.63 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03f4…7e44backed PARIVISION | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 568 | 52.5%298 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 1,915$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.05 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb35…b62abacked Natus Vincere | 21c | 1,827$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$381.7 | 393 | 43.3%170 W · 223 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Natus Vincere | 19c | 1,698$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.27 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Natus Vincere | 8c | 1,193$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.48 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe843…0699backed Natus Vincere | 23c | 805$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.31 | 111 | 31.5%35 W · 76 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ea3…71a1backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 748.05$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.71 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490b…eec9backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 686.79$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.34 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Natus Vincere | 20c | 666.36$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.7 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Natus Vincere | 29c | 591.53$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.54 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 580.57$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.96 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 488.58$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.46 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked Natus Vincere | 5c | 470.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Natus Vincere | 20c | 404.68$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.63 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 394.11$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.04 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 389.59$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 375.18$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf138…c953backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 341.68$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.67 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -35%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 24c | 322.78$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.28 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere | 13c | 284.29$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.15 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…859ebacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 281.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.29 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9120…ae70backed PARIVISION | 71c | 275$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 210 | 62.4%131 W · 79 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Natus Vincere | 22c | 262.05$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.45 | 167 | 25.7%43 W · 124 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c2…1c20backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 205.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.41 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed PARIVISION | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae10…d0d9backed PARIVISION | 74c | 199.14$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.78 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +8.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed10…15edbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 191.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 881 | 66.7%588 W · 293 L | +76.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3d66…ffc9backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 170.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed PARIVISION | 74c | 165.14$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.94 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked PARIVISION | 73c | 150$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed PARIVISION | 78c | 146.03$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.03 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 131.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked PARIVISION | 76c | 129.01$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.43 | 468 | 72.2%338 W · 130 L | +36.5wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 113.7$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.97 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 102.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a5…1fbfbacked PARIVISION | 73c | 100.79$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Natus Vincere | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.64 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa97…69fabacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 92.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.27 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f2…33cfbacked Natus Vincere | 26c | 91.88$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x672d…dbd7backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 91.39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.77 | 400 | 47.5%190 W · 210 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Natus Vincere | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Natus Vincere | 29c | 70.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed PARIVISION | 72c | 68.82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.27 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14d1…6e8ebacked Natus Vincere | 36c | 53.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked PARIVISION | 79c | 53.39$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked PARIVISION | 64c | 43.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8769…04aebacked PARIVISION | 69c | 42.67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | -7.5wins | -0.14per pick | 60cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed PARIVISION | 77c | 31.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed PARIVISION | 76c | 25.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - BLAST Slam Europe Closed Qualifier PlayoffsPARIVISION won
- Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Natus Vincere - Game 2 WinnerPARIVISION won
- Game Handicap: PARI (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)PARIVISION won
- Total Kills Over/Under 25.5 in Game 1?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 32.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 33.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 37.5 in Game 1?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 41.5 in Game 1?Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.