Asian League · resolved market
Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x11ffc89d02cf1847ca09bd073053ec6b8792110714cad262f6f2dbf8847082e2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Asian Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,098
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Asian League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Asian League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07ea…a6babacked Over | 71c | 4,225$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.35 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 30c | 1,705$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.67 | 2,491 | 40%997 W · 1,494 L | -18.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 1,465$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.94 | 5,946 | 46.1%2,743 W · 3,203 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 31c | 1,429$447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.07 | 2,424 | 38%920 W · 1,504 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 68c | 764.27$519 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.27 | 828 | 42.4%351 W · 477 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 49c | 557$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.07 | 1,651 | 50.9%840 W · 811 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bec…8d52backed Under | 51c | 506.65$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.39 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +50.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffdf…97f8backed Over | 49c | 448.98$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.98 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57d…bf4cbacked Under | 23c | 445.49$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.14 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +106%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 51c | 389.17$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.48 | 396 | 49.7%197 W · 199 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 73c | 339.3$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 928 | 35%325 W · 603 L | -22.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c74…0d16backed Over | 79c | 300$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.33 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 51c | 193.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 1,063 | 42%446 W · 617 L | -12.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 38c | 145$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.85 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90a1…fb15backed Over | 50c | 131.08$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 51c | 100.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 747 | 39.4%294 W · 453 L | +23.1wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…0904backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +3.1wins | +0.20per pick | 40cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 54c | 85.94$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 1,647 | 36.2%596 W · 1,051 L | -34.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 34c | 84.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 192 | 61.5%118 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x042d…0b81backed Under | 50c | 77.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.64 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -6.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Under | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 245 | 48.6%119 W · 126 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Under | 49c | 73.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 423 | 51.3%217 W · 206 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 49c | 68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 1,970 | 54.4%1,071 W · 899 L | +32.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 50c | 62.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 1,443 | 35.3%509 W · 934 L | -36.4wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 34c | 60.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.93 | 371 | 53.9%200 W · 171 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 34c | 60.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 251 | 55.8%140 W · 111 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 34c | 56.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 238 | 59.7%142 W · 96 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37b0…799fbacked Under | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x460c…b5b5backed Under | 34c | 42.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 79 | 73.4%58 W · 21 L | +11.6wins | +0.15per pick | 59cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 39c | 39.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 49c | 35.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.11 | 375 | 62.7%235 W · 140 L | +61.4wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 139 | 49.6%69 W · 70 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 36c | 29.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 240 | 61.7%148 W · 92 L | +17.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Asian League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 2.5this page
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: Kashiwa Reysol O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 0.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 1.5Over won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 3.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 4.5Under won
- Kashiwa Reysol vs. FC Mito Holly Hock: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-1.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
- Spread: Kashiwa Reysol (-2.5)FC Mito Holly Hock won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.