College Football · resolved market
Army vs. Air Force: O/U 48.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1218eca3609356ccc2855c7dbdc71ec6dd3568ab84c46ac00d1576593f5592ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 50c | 22,688$11,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,341.79 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Under | 50c | 12,253$6,127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,126.5 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 7,500$3,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,750 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 50c | 4,452$2,226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,226 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc40…c293backed Under | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.22per pick | 51cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 50c | 2,710$1,355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,355 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c96…4fa0backed Over | 50c | 2,351$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 2,308$1,154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,154.13 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…2390backed Under | 50c | 2,149$1,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,074.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa177…6e84backed Under | 52c | 1,923$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$923.08 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5dce…1c1ebacked Over | 50c | 1,784$892 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$892 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7865…5a91backed Over | 50c | 1,749$875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$874.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b51…5c96backed Over | 50c | 1,538$769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…483fbacked Under | 51c | 1,138$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$555.44 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…8dcfbacked Under | 50c | 1,135$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$567.5 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 52cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 48c | 999.99$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 52c | 770$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.6 | 224 | 37.5%84 W · 140 L | -17.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 243.08$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.54 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Under | 52c | 67.31$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.31 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Over | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b1…4c3bbacked Over | 49c | 49.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a5…3ec1backed Under | 51c | 49.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0a…57e6backed Under | 51c | 49.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d95…9d3cbacked Over | 49c | 49.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Army vs. Air Force: O/U 48.5this page
- Army vs. Air ForceArmy won
- O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Air Force (-1.5)Army won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.