Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1224d22f6325afe387c0d47115bbbd7d8254a604c09720124f5bce162fcfe49a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,627
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 393.1$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 209.79$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.35 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 40c | 197.49$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 196.08$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 29c | 159.42$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.98 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 66c | 154.12$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.39 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 31c | 150.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.21 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 69c | 126.85$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.36 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3221…f1bebacked Yes | 15c | 107.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.72 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 45c | 105.69$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 65c | 101.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.89 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 99.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 64c | 99.57$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 26c | 83.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.73 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 68c | 71.44$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 64c | 69.12$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.57 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 63c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 60.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.19 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198e…ede0backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 564 | 34.6%195 W · 369 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 40c | 59.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.8 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 33c | 57.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 56.13$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f12…9424backed No | 64c | 54.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 175 | 53.7%94 W · 81 L | +9.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 53.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.47 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 30c | 49.97$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.19 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 27c | 49.85$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.39 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 38c | 45.13$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 40.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 46c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 36c | 39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.96 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 57c | 35.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 64c | 35.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 64c | 34.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9547…1bf5backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.38 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 43c | 29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.61 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 42c | 28.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 61c | 27.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 46c | 24.09$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 61c | 24.04$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb423…c178backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 268 | 61.6%165 W · 103 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 67c | 20.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 65c | 19.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a9…4182backed No | 66c | 18.88$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 92 | 60.9%56 W · 36 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.