Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x122e54aa89463a4b447c6884c8bb5fe2bfd60d974871db257800f0321b1a1bfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 32c | 492.04$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.15 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 75c | 363.81$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 77c | 291.06$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.56 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 18c | 280.66$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 265.18$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 17c | 226.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 192.4$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.67 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 163.98$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.14 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07de…d541backed Yes | 38c | 158.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 141.52$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 41c | 141.07$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.38 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 80c | 140.15$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.23 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 67c | 134.47$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.9 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 79c | 132.43$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.45 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 11c | 129.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 24c | 126.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1753…cafdbacked Yes | 42c | 116.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.62 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 58c | 107.89$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda56…4176backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 129 | 34.1%44 W · 85 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec6…2ad1backed Yes | 23c | 87.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 64c | 83.64$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.26 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 20c | 79.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 39c | 77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 79c | 75.95$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 70c | 71.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 64c | 69.42$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe35…57c3backed Yes | 29c | 68.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 104 | 30.8%32 W · 72 L | -16.9wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 22c | 66.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5068…1ffabacked No | 79c | 64.99$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.4 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked No | 62c | 64.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 64.73$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 27c | 60$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed Yes | 21c | 52.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96b0…67c5backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ec…0df5backed Yes | 23c | 47.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 42.06$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 73c | 35.58$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 65c | 31.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.95 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe442…1e49backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c7d…63debacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 75c | 26.18$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x570c…91c5backed No | 66c | 25.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 711 | 59.2%421 W · 290 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked No | 73c | 25.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dad…147cbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 36 | 77.8%28 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 58c | 24.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 66c | 24.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…3afcbacked No | 79c | 20.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 204 | 38.7%79 W · 125 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 19.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…8e32backed No | 61c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 71c | 17.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 69c | 16.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 67c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 10?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.