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Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on June 6?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,472
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,509

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,472 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes32c199.99$64 inLost-$641,85842.7%793 W · 1,065 L+50.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ecf…af11backed Yes31c159.71$49 inLost-$49.440539.3%159 W · 246 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No61c148.4$91 inWon+$57.21,47758.6%865 W · 612 L+72.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed No65c126.04$82 inWon+$44.268,33749.2%4,098 W · 4,239 L+271.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes35c125.27$44 inLost-$43.911,22733.9%416 W · 811 L+45.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfcb…bf61backed No66c120.35$80 inWon+$40.432475%18 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick70cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed Yes35c101.93$35 inLost-$35.21,80550.4%910 W · 895 L+40.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed No68c98.94$67 inWon+$31.7610,04444.8%4,500 W · 5,544 L+257.5wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c9e…8d54backed No68c80$54 inWon+$25.627669.2%191 W · 85 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick72cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes46c79.99$37 inLost-$36.84,00947.3%1,897 W · 2,112 L+71.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Yes32c71.23$23 inLost-$22.8463122.5%142 W · 489 L-29.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-44.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No72c66.54$48 inWon+$18.9610,95237.4%4,094 W · 6,858 L+432.6wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+16%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes29c60.04$18 inLost-$17.6124434.4%84 W · 160 L+10.0wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes44c51$22 inLost-$22.449,96245.9%4,572 W · 5,390 L-309.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No70c49.99$35 inWon+$1522746.7%106 W · 121 L-0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa990…dc90backed Yes41c48.37$20 inLost-$19.759144.5%263 W · 328 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe84…20e0backed Yes30c46.86$14 inLost-$14.075154.9%28 W · 23 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56b3…3fa2backed No67c46.72$31 inWon+$15.692944.3%412 W · 517 L+31.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes39c44.98$17 inLost-$17.333,64953.2%1,943 W · 1,706 L+83.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c41…500dbacked Yes30c43.68$13 inLost-$13.257627.6%21 W · 55 L-3.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes32c42$13 inLost-$13.231,47234.8%512 W · 960 L-2.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0b1…6754backed No72c41.89$30 inWon+$11.7335465%230 W · 124 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes26c41.37$11 inLost-$10.88,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e04…67f4backed No71c40.5$29 inWon+$11.686668.2%45 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick72cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed No72c36.15$26 inWon+$10.123360.6%20 W · 13 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+13.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes30c34.43$10 inLost-$10.257,2339.3%675 W · 6,558 L-1,116.1wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.8%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xe5b1…30b2backed No69c33$23 inWon+$10.2350373.2%368 W · 135 L+25.3wins+0.05per pick68cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x035b…c6ddbacked No65c30.83$20 inWon+$10.8325049.2%123 W · 127 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b95…898abacked No57c25.42$15 inWon+$10.8830168.8%207 W · 94 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x41fa…7cc4backed No66c25$17 inWon+$8.4479255.2%437 W · 355 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No61c24.99$15 inWon+$9.742,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x170b…4737backed No55c24.72$14 inWon+$11.1280957.6%466 W · 343 L-19.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c2…8010backed No57c22.99$13 inWon+$9.891,27647.6%607 W · 669 L-24.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No57c22.93$13 inWon+$9.781,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No68c21.93$15 inWon+$6.932,46735.7%880 W · 1,587 L+24.6wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+6.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed No72c20.33$15 inWon+$5.772,42844.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L-31.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32b9…9a9cbacked No70c20$14 inWon+$664960.2%391 W · 258 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe2be…ff33backed No67c20$13 inWon+$6.71,20348.9%588 W · 615 L-24.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked No69c18.03$12 inWon+$5.591,25459.8%750 W · 504 L+36.9wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No72c16$12 inWon+$4.465,83660%3,502 W · 2,334 L-112.4wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No80c15$12 inWon+$3.051,52552.6%802 W · 723 L+2.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.