Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will FC Alverca win on 2026-02-28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x125b7d3c22a8e38085ea11115c8e41fbbc2907539973cde946dfdc8ce43844bf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,456
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,325
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,456 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 19c | 2,551$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$484.74 | 660 | 47.6%314 W · 346 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90e0…ff4cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,431$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.63 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -89.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Yes | 21c | 2,178$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Yes | 12c | 1,800$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad15…ee7fbacked No | 79c | 1,176$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.19 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec59…bb35backed Yes | 20c | 814.3$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.53 | 90 | 61.1%55 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69a…3360backed Yes | 17c | 597.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 13c | 429.59$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.83 | 2,179 | 48%1,046 W · 1,133 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb881…20a1backed Yes | 10c | 312.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 80c | 284$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 80c | 227.72$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 387 | 47.5%184 W · 203 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9853…e86abacked Yes | 20c | 225$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed No | 78c | 161$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.02 | 64 | 56.3%36 W · 28 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 66 | 16.7%11 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 20c | 117$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 284 | 46.1%131 W · 153 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…13eebacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 214 | 73.4%157 W · 57 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 105 | 39%41 W · 64 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Yes | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 22c | 76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 583 | 20.1%117 W · 466 L | -37.7wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…6cb9backed Yes | 21c | 71.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 79c | 60.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 1,222 | 51%623 W · 599 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 69 | 63.8%44 W · 25 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 408 | 50.7%207 W · 201 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 80c | 35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.18 | 852 | 50.4%429 W · 423 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed No | 79c | 32.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 138 | 42.8%59 W · 79 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb90…8dd8backed Yes | 78c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 26cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed No | 80c | 17.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Alverca win on 2026-02-28?this page
- Will Vitória SC vs. FC Alverca end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Vitória SC win on 2026-02-28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.