Olympics · resolved market
Will Femke Bol (NED) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x126de2b82cc742b8a221039c99222ef5db1cc2ea73d55f93f4d1b03c9876884f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Olympicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,532
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $30,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,532 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Olympics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Olympics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 25c | 7,103$1,772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,772 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe533…ab29backed Yes | 23c | 4,000$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…49e7backed Yes | 22c | 2,468$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 20c | 2,128$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.49 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x145b…d6bdbacked Yes | 24c | 2,074$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15a6…bf5dbacked Yes | 22c | 1,705$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.05 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77cf…0e71backed No | 78c | 1,704$1,322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +46.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed No | 77c | 1,405$1,088 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4268…43e5backed Yes | 26c | 840.37$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.2 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6476…1f3fbacked Yes | 27c | 805.15$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe57…bbc0backed Yes | 24c | 609.34$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes | 22c | 547.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.55 | 134 | 19.4%26 W · 108 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4825…007dbacked No | 76c | 461$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.47 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc060…9f96backed Yes | 6c | 317.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed No | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182b…f022backed No | 73c | 292.22$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2365…4bfbbacked No | 74c | 292.22$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.98 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 71cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88ac…480fbacked Yes | 22c | 250$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 22c | 173$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.31 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf786…73ccbacked Yes | 28c | 130$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8467…f90bbacked Yes | 26c | 120.62$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked Yes | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c6…b942backed No | 75c | 103$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef9…83d6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…fdeebacked Yes | 26c | 97.81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd79b…705fbacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b50…87fbbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +82.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf90c…2cd6backed Yes | 27c | 87.41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…3c57backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35a9…8282backed Yes | 26c | 78.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc941…c3d4backed No | 76c | 76.9$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93e5…fe80backed Yes | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x405b…5f3ebacked Yes | 23c | 60.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…6960backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1237…de46backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -54%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0831…f374backed No | 75c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…98b8backed No | 76c | 46.18$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed No | 73c | 28.64$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.73 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Olympics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Femke Bol (NED) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?this page
- Will Anna Cockrell (USA) win Gold in Women’s 400m Hurdles?No won
- Will Jasmine Jones (USA) win Gold in Women’s 400m Hurdles?No won
- Will Rushell Clayton (JAM) win Gold in Women’s 400m Hurdles?No won
- Will Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (USA) win Gold in 400m Hurdles?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.