Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x127d1524cc3f67dfcde97b11eaa5f5a5de454eb6c2e3a6031989c1bbecf0b6ef
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,661
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,661 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 57c | 668.61$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.58 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 37c | 439.43$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.11 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 70c | 267.9$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.7 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 203.32$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 157.33$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.07 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x779a…5e89backed No | 66c | 146.32$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.21per pick | 37cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 134.89$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 21c | 123.38$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.03 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 65c | 120.35$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.23 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 32c | 114$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.52 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 26c | 105.19$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 39c | 93.92$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.08 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 40c | 91.22$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 36c | 83.32$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 60c | 79.3$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 37c | 78.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 26c | 77.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.07 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 28c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 25c | 68.49$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2063…6a25backed No | 69c | 68.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.3wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 35c | 60.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.08 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 58.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.14 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 67c | 58.02$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 70c | 56.47$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x62b2…30abbacked Yes | 34c | 55.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.26per pick | 37cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 52c | 54.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.15 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec1…07a5backed No | 25c | 51.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 247 | 68.4%169 W · 78 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 33c | 50.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.53 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 33c | 49.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.49 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 36c | 47.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 39c | 47.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed Yes | 37c | 41.35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 34c | 39.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.09 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f40…887cbacked Yes | 38c | 39.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.56 | 56 | 14.3%8 W · 48 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 33.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 34c | 32.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.05 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0791…d81fbacked Yes | 37c | 28.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfda8…e905backed No | 67c | 25.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 62c | 23.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked No | 52c | 22.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…041fbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 64cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8abd…c2a6backed Yes | 65c | 19.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed No | 64c | 18.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 68c | 17.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8861backed No | 78c | 16.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 68c | 15.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.