Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2019ed14684ed8d1b5478624ee5a8317e0e3d37b10a9f23f555f1d3e765df08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,862
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,545
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,862 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,141$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.8 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadba…b0afbacked Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 84 | 0%0 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 540.79$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 50c | 315.93$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9193…a796backed Yes | 23c | 298.46$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.65 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 205.32$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d6…9357backed No | 80c | 199.72$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.94 | 8 | 100%8 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 48c | 177.77$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.89 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc7…0a64backed Yes | 70c | 160.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.93 | 57 | 77.2%44 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c54…ae3fbacked No | 77c | 144.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 19c | 125.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 64c | 122.39$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.19 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 17c | 119.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 60c | 109.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.71 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9337…4fc6backed Yes | 35c | 105.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce07…5c3cbacked Yes | 54c | 105.45$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.49 | 310 | 62.6%194 W · 116 L | +38.4wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 30c | 100$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 55c | 93.76$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 26c | 91.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.73 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…2ea5backed No | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.96 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9003…4c59backed Yes | 12c | 85.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 85 | 31.8%27 W · 58 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 46c | 79.95$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 16c | 74.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 73c | 72.95$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 44c | 72.31$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.92 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 78c | 69.13$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.92 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 69c | 68.79$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.39 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 20c | 64.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 61$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…7839backed Yes | 44c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe490…f299backed Yes | 65c | 53.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -52%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 23c | 51.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffa…d06bbacked Yes | 27c | 46.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 244 | 42.6%104 W · 140 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 24c | 43.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890d…7522backed Yes | 24c | 43.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 41.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 51c | 38.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.78 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…8861backed Yes | 30c | 33.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bc1…ea87backed No | 51c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 34c | 32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x71f3…0b6cbacked No | 76c | 30.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…52e9backed Yes | 66c | 29.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe508…5885backed Yes | 54c | 27.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa61b…f52ebacked No | 73c | 26.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2706…c6bebacked No | 74c | 26.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 318 | 66%210 W · 108 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x112a…b221backed No | 78c | 24.93$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 72cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cd…aecdbacked No | 73c | 24.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 80c | 22.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8842…dfa7backed Yes | 45c | 22.65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.28 | 452 | 36.5%165 W · 287 L | +20.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 50c | 20.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 65c | 20.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9635…ae57backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 80c | 18.63$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 65c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 71c | 14.66$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.