Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x169725baa7190fcb05345422fad3409463422bcf2739351633bb7798539b3abd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,574
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,482$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x293e…9962backed Yes | 3c | 915.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 157 | 59.2%93 W · 64 L | +12.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 5c | 691.01$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.52 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 69c | 544.32$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.24 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 30c | 541.61$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 42c | 515.33$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.9 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 481.07$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 7c | 258.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6de9…a8e5backed Yes | 6c | 210.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.63 | 201 | 61.7%124 W · 77 L | -10.1wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 26c | 178.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 9c | 174.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 74c | 171$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.03 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 75c | 164.81$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 47c | 147.28$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.22 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 53c | 140.15$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb5…e19cbacked Yes | 46c | 120.58$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 106 | 17.9%19 W · 87 L | -10.8wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Yes | 11c | 119.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 33c | 116.85$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Yes | 32c | 109.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 27c | 109$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.19 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 48c | 83.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 14c | 80.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 30c | 80.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 27c | 76.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 72.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 54c | 61.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.46 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 59.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 51.2$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa403…3cb7backed Yes | 29c | 50.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ef…3e88backed Yes | 39c | 50.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 78c | 49.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 43c | 49.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc45…2957backed No | 52c | 48.07$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.07 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaba1…ac85backed No | 58c | 46.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 112 | 59.8%67 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 54c | 44.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.51 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 32c | 40.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 27c | 40.75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.98 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 61c | 38.98$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 389 | 61.7%240 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked Yes | 32c | 37.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 65c | 35.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked No | 79c | 35.37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b7…148cbacked Yes | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 93 | 31.2%29 W · 64 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 76c | 29.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 436 | 63.5%277 W · 159 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 47c | 29.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.71 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x857f…ddb7backed No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…52e8backed No | 56c | 27.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -4.2wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed No | 58c | 26.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c13…31a3backed No | 75c | 26.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 78c | 26.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b1…fa5fbacked Yes | 45c | 25.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 72 | 29.2%21 W · 51 L | +3.7wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed Yes | 40c | 25.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 68c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4302…8d4fbacked No | 62c | 21.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 82 | 53.7%44 W · 38 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e75…305ebacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…17a6backed No | 57c | 18.12$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…f919backed No | 65c | 16.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked No | 69c | 14.54$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 79c | 12.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.67 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or higher on April 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on April 16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.