Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12803217a3ff9e949f2aa9a02140dca28a24ed761afa80876fd865ed99ab09f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,567
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,567 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 24c | 1,563$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$373.14 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 19c | 363.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.39 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 23c | 335.95$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.08 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 80c | 331$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.82 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 76c | 320.1$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 728 | 50.7%369 W · 359 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea87…8066backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 9c | 176.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 77c | 160.76$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.98 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x43ce…c264backed Yes | 23c | 113.04$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 12c | 110.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 21c | 74$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e11…e1f5backed Yes | 16c | 70.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b83…f841backed Yes | 16c | 66.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 23c | 49.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…cf99backed Yes | 22c | 49.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 77c | 38.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.97 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 77c | 27.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 74c | 21.84$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…2139backed No | 77c | 20.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 76c | 17.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 78c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -3.5wins | -0.11per pick | 60cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 77c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 77c | 15.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 77c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 77c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.35 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-11?this page
- Will New England Revolution vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?No won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.