Mls · resolved market
Will New England Revolution vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56648ee5091e8aa7bfc5235e854c765db6acb949b06303da46daf4d94c4dc38d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,054
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,194
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,054 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 4,824$3,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,270.21 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 30c | 2,570$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.68 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 78c | 2,070$1,620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.46 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…5878backed Yes | 21c | 1,907$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400.47 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 27c | 600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 23c | 576.75$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.96 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed No | 74c | 400$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed No | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 20c | 394.35$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 73c | 300$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 70c | 222.48$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.69 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 27c | 181.76$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 32c | 170$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.3 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed Yes | 20c | 138.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.26 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Yes | 20c | 131.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…86dbbacked Yes | 20c | 131.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Yes | 20c | 131.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Yes | 20c | 131.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Yes | 20c | 131.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Yes | 20c | 131.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Yes | 20c | 131.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Yes | 20c | 131.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed Yes | 20c | 125$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 21c | 102.65$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x838d…3cbdbacked Yes | 14c | 100.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 64c | 92$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.12 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 18c | 81.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 20c | 79$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a9…d58bbacked Yes | 30c | 67.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 20c | 66.9$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 19c | 60$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 72c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 18.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.32 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will New England Revolution vs. D.C. United SC end in a draw?this page
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will New England Revolution win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.