Tennis · resolved market
Oeiras 2: Emily Appleton vs Kaitlin Quevedo
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1283b74847cb0ca48c7955d802d7868b181177fd9d37192d46e7c25157eb8d3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Quevedoof Appleton, Quevedo
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,642
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,334
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,642 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Appleton | 18c | 5,990$1,097 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,097.25 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Quevedo | 80c | 4,572$3,654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$917.55 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Appleton | 22c | 3,211$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.32 | 2,746 | 30.8%846 W · 1,900 L | -67.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Quevedo | 74c | 2,099$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.09 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Appleton | 23c | 1,096$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.27 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Quevedo | 78c | 1,081$845 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.86 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Appleton | 16c | 697.16$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.63 | 491 | 43%211 W · 280 L | -15.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3a…8e5fbacked Appleton | 23c | 535.71$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Appleton | 23c | 386.08$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.8 | 761 | 40.6%309 W · 452 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Appleton | 18c | 238.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.89 | 884 | 55%486 W · 398 L | +37.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Appleton | 17c | 205.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 6,786 | 48.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L | +56.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76ca…6a3abacked Appleton | 14c | 178.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Appleton | 15c | 177.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 507 | 31.2%158 W · 349 L | -41.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3578…f163backed Quevedo | 73c | 163.3$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.3 | 398 | 72.4%288 W · 110 L | +9.5wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Appleton | 23c | 135.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Appleton | 15c | 126.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f85…87d5backed Appleton | 21c | 125.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Appleton | 28c | 108.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 398 | 50%199 W · 199 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Appleton | 17c | 107.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 3,270 | 13.8%450 W · 2,820 L | -549.1wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Appleton | 27c | 100.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed Appleton | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Quevedo | 73c | 68$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x655f…be5fbacked Appleton | 31c | 38.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Quevedo | 72c | 36.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 195 | 50.8%99 W · 96 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Quevedo | 73c | 28.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.83 | 580 | 67.8%393 W · 187 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…1c7dbacked Quevedo | 73c | 27.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Quevedo | 75c | 22.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.69 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Quevedo | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338f…c6dabacked Quevedo | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.8wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3873…dec8backed Quevedo | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 164 | 68.9%113 W · 51 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Quevedo | 75c | 13.44$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.