Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12bacfa8498c33c1c86c561438b8b6cdd0b90e7b47b8f84d251c303277c34a8f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 7c | 430.93$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.85 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 372.16$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cb…4629backed Yes | 12c | 333.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.98 | 153 | 21.6%33 W · 120 L | +8.1wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 10c | 312.01$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.51 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 281.96$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 5c | 215$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$203.61 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 13c | 177.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 9c | 170.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.45 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes | 8c | 144$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.48 | 219 | 30.1%66 W · 153 L | +15.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…1dd9backed Yes | 21c | 133.92$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 22c | 126.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed Yes | 75c | 122.57$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.93 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 26c | 87.04$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.3 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa26b…525ebacked No | 36c | 76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 36cpaid | -82.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb311…eadfbacked Yes | 66c | 75.71$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.71 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…33d3backed Yes | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 98 | 57.1%56 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd83e…c0b5backed Yes | 40c | 70$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe9…71cdbacked Yes | 22c | 64.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.28 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 32cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x54ad…b3c1backed Yes | 26c | 61.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 56c | 56.25$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.93 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 66c | 51.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 57c | 49.81$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…e0b6backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 202 | 30.2%61 W · 141 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 37c | 41.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.1 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9c99…94f6backed No | 48c | 39.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 69c | 31.98$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.18 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdd33…5452backed Yes | 70c | 31.86$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46bc…4894backed Yes | 79c | 29.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…8eeabacked Yes | 66c | 25.34$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 40 | 75%30 W · 10 L | +6.2wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…5f31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 289 | 46.4%134 W · 155 L | -14.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on May 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on May 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on May 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.