Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Toledo Rockets vs. Ball State Cardinals (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12d57d9d5c8851d13f2c74b8737d3a20fdb0e063b713f33bbb4e33e0943973ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Toledo Rocketsof Toledo Rockets, Ball State Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,837 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Toledo Rockets | 34c | 4,203$1,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,761.22 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Ball State Cardinals | 69c | 2,764$1,910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,910.19 | 1,074 | 43.3%465 W · 609 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Ball State Cardinals | 61c | 1,250$762 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761.9 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Toledo Rockets | 34c | 399.39$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.65 | 646 | 47.5%307 W · 339 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974a…98c3backed Ball State Cardinals | 27c | 374$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.87 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Toledo Rockets | 35c | 136.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.8 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x012d…9db6backed Ball State Cardinals | 74c | 132.56$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 23 | 82.6%19 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 73cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Ball State Cardinals | 62c | 116$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.85 | 358 | 52%186 W · 172 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Toledo Rockets | 22c | 101.27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79 | 939 | 41.6%391 W · 548 L | +25.4wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Ball State Cardinals | 55c | 94.68$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.26 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Toledo Rockets | 63c | 91$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Toledo Rockets | 22c | 74.04$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.55 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Ball State Cardinals | 77c | 71.03$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Ball State Cardinals | 78c | 61.67$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 144 | 59%85 W · 59 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a4…d574backed Toledo Rockets | 50c | 61.13$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +142.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67da…9da8backed Toledo Rockets | 61c | 59$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.01 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 32cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Ball State Cardinals | 73c | 56.13$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2a…a58dbacked Ball State Cardinals | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ball State Cardinals | 75c | 39$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 848 | 54.5%462 W · 386 L | +32.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfb0…466fbacked Ball State Cardinals | 60c | 26.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.77 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | -9.6wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3160…e846backed Ball State Cardinals | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Ball State Cardinals | 75c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 237 | 54.4%129 W · 108 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.