Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x12d9d04bfa55d0faa366ef2d394b0a6cffd279512e3d12d87f283d7656083d4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,573
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd16a…7691backed Yes | 32c | 20,000$6,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,374.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 68c | 18,171$12,356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,814.56 | 113 | 55.8%63 W · 50 L | +7.7wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 74c | 7,500$5,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,975 | 143 | 46.9%67 W · 76 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Yes | 25c | 4,240$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,061.56 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 73c | 4,159$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.73 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 2,205$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.2 | 231 | 53.2%123 W · 108 L | +16.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 24c | 2,064$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked No | 70c | 1,300$904 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.78 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 26c | 1,296$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.91 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 28c | 1,167$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.01 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 27c | 1,106$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…477abacked Yes | 29c | 1,034$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 73c | 616.04$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.32 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 26c | 570$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.2 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 71c | 480.53$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.51 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d7…a70cbacked No | 79c | 379.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.75 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Yes | 33c | 365.39$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.58 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5adf…a5e7backed Yes | 25c | 349.99$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 71c | 348.04$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.93 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 23c | 272$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.22 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed No | 71c | 263.09$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 26c | 168.11$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 34c | 147.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedb1…3fddbacked Yes | 34c | 117.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…745ebacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 130 | 16.2%21 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e2…f659backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3112…7dc7backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba5d…d1a1backed No | 75c | 80$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 76cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9f…f4afbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Yes | 15c | 69.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…3aabbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc26d…63f2backed Yes | 24c | 58.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a76…51b7backed Yes | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1c9…c452backed No | 72c | 45.42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +59%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…8186backed No | 74c | 27.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc513…c200backed No | 76c | 20.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd2…3ab6backed No | 76c | 20.12$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa39b…e6c5backed No | 76c | 20.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.82 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd808…bdc2backed No | 76c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1f…593fbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0997…cadcbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 76cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9388…435dbacked No | 75c | 17.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 78cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AJ Auxerre win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will AJ Auxerre vs. Racing Club de Lens end in a draw?No won
- Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2025-10-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.